Author: Alexander Stubb
_Alexander Stubb_
Reading time: 27 minutes
Synopsis
The Triangle of Power (2026) asks a big question: who really controls the world today? The old rules do not work anymore. Alexander Stubb looks at wars, trade problems, and new friendships between countries. He shows a world divided into three parts: the Global West, the Global East, and a growing Global South. The Global South now has more power than before. The book tells us what is not working, what still works, and what kind of future world order we might have.
What will I learn? Understand the changing world and what might happen next.
After World War II, the world was built on rules. People trusted each other. They believed that working together could control strong powers. But now, this system is breaking down.
Governments with strong leaders are expanding their influence. Movements that focus on their own country are growing inside nations. Also, digital tools now use information to cause problems. Countries are trading less. Special taxes on imported goods are popular again. The West used to lead the world easily. Now, other countries are challenging this leadership.
If you want to know what is happening, this summary will help you. In the next six parts, we will look at events since the Cold War ended. These events have led to today’s uncertain times. We will see how power is changing and what the future might bring. Everything depends on how three groups work together. These are the Global West (North America, Europe, and friends in the Pacific). The Global East (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea). And the Global South (India, Africa, and Latin America). This is the new “triangle of power”. The big question is how these three different powers can work together. They need to make progress for everyone and avoid fighting and breaking apart. How can this happen? Let’s find out.
Blink 1 – How power was controlled
For most of history, big empires gave people what they wanted: order. Think of the Roman Empire or China’s Qing dynasties. These systems made shared rules for people, land, and power. They did not last forever, and they were often cruel. But they brought a clear structure. Order means stability. It means arranging power so daily life stays calm and does not become messy.
Later, this idea grew to cover the whole world. The idea that each country is its own boss, or “sovereignty,” became official. This happened with the Peace of Westphalia treaties in the 1600s. These treaties said that all countries were equal by law in world politics. Trade, culture, and money were important. But countries themselves were the main parts of this system.
This structure felt very strong during the Cold War. Power was split between two main groups with different ideas. Each group had its own friends, rules, and limits. When the Cold War ended, the feeling of order stayed. One Western superpower was at the center. Many people thought the world system was now fixed and stable.
But after the Soviet Union broke up, Europe saw a lot of fighting in the 1990s. Western ideas did not always work well. Especially when people felt these ideas were forced on them. Russia struggled to change its system. Also, the European Union and NATO found it hard to grow. All these things caused much disorder and trouble. This created the start of today’s strong-leader governments.
Then came the early 2000s, after 9/11. Western governments made security their top priority. They tried to control events using military power. People trusted the West less. Power started to spread out to more countries. New, growing economies began to ask for more power in groups like the World Trade Organization.
The West’s power became weaker after the Iraq War and the 2008 money crisis. After this, the West was more okay with countries breaking rules. By 2010, people trusted democracy, free markets, and global trade less and less. Populism grew quickly. Brexit made Britain’s role weaker. Meanwhile, China grew stronger with careful, long-term plans.
Problems in the 2020s showed the breakdown clearly. These problems include the pandemic, money troubles, and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The old time was over. But a new time had not yet started. We now live in an unclear time. Power is split, and countries are changing their friends.
Countries like India show what this time is like. India is active and democratic, but it does not have enough say. India wants a bigger role in groups like the UN Security Council, BRICS, and G20. How new powerful countries choose their friends will decide the future rules and ideas.
The future seems to be a flexible system. It will be based on changing interests and working together in useful ways. This system will also be more focused on different regions. To understand the future, we first need to know how the old order fell apart.
Blink 2 – War and countries going their own ways
Russia’s attack on Ukraine changed everything forever. From the start, this war was different from earlier conflicts. Countries did not all react the same way. Each country reacted based on its own safety needs, money, and future plans. What looked like holding back or not being loyal was often a smart plan.
Russia started the war because of its history. Russians learn that their country has often been surrounded and had to fight to survive. The lesson is that power comes from strength, not talking or finding common ground. Russia never really accepted the open world system after the Cold War. It sees world politics as a game where one country’s gain is another’s loss. For Russia, being the strongest makes it right. Ukraine is very important in this idea. It is seen as key to making Russia a great empire again. This belief is shared by many, not just those in power.
From a military point of view, the invasion was a disaster for Russia. Russian leaders did not know their own army’s true strength. They thought Ukraine would not fight hard. They also did not understand how other countries would react. Instead of splitting the West, the war brought Europe and the US closer. It made NATO strong again. It also made careful countries commit more to their safety. Finland joining NATO changed Europe’s defense map greatly. But the biggest failure was political. Russians could not win over the Ukrainian people. So, military success was never possible for Russia.
Inside Russia, the government expected people to obey. Protests have been small and stopped quickly. This is because order and a clear power structure are very important in Russian culture. Especially after the hard times of the 1990s. Many Russians still think that too much freedom leads to chaos. This makes the war seem like a price they are willing to pay.
Outside Europe and the US, many governments chose to be neutral. Or they chose to get involved only in certain ways. This shows that countries do not automatically follow Western leadership anymore. Even in the Global East, reactions were different. For China, the war was an annoying problem. But it also gave China more power. China carefully balanced its business with Europe against its important relationship with Russia. So, China’s support was unclear and practical.
In the Global South, countries also showed flexible positions. They acted based on their own local needs, not old friendships. India is a good example of this. It balanced its democratic links with the West against its long-term safety ties with Russia.
As power spreads out, the world is breaking into more parts. Now there are more countries, stronger regional groups, and less trust. Groups like the United Nations are still very important. But for them to be truly accepted, they need to change and include more voices. The lesson from Ukraine is not just about war. It shows a world that does not want to follow one main power anymore. In this world, being able to influence others and being accepted are as important as land and weapons.
Blink 3 – The West: its strengths, problems, and how it tries to fix itself
The Global West includes the US, Europe, and democratic friends like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada. This group started from a long try at political and economic freedom. In these countries, democracy and free markets grew in different ways. Some, like Scandinavia, have large government support systems. Others, like the US, have smaller, market-led systems. What connects them is a shared belief in open societies, individual freedom, and fair laws.
But this history is not simple. The world system created by the West helped countries grow. But it also existed with colonial rule, wars fought by others, and lasting unfairness. These problems never truly went away. Today, the Global West is at a key moment. Its systems are strong, its economies are rich, and its technology is powerful. For the West to lead for a long time, it must deal with its own problems. It also needs to work with a world that no longer trusts it easily.
Democracy is still the West’s main strength. But it is harder to keep it working well. Technology now changes politics very fast. It makes both voices and disagreements louder. Social media often rewards anger more than careful thought. Populist groups have used the anger of voters. These voters feel poor and ignored by politicians. In the US and Europe, unequal wealth, job worries, and cultural changes have made political divisions worse. These pressures appear in elections, votes, and strong disagreements in public talks across Western countries.
The EU shows both the good and bad parts of Western leadership. It is not a democracy itself. It is a group of democracies. These countries have chosen to share power in some important areas. The EU makes rules for business and trade. This gives it global power. It often sets rules that other countries follow. But fights between Brussels and national governments show how hard it is. It is hard to balance common values with a country’s own politics. New political parties that do not like immigration show this problem. But an open system, where different ideas can challenge power, is good.
For the Global West to be trusted, democracy must show clear results. It must reduce the gap between rich and poor. It must make sure people can get health care, homes, and education. It must also make people believe that hard work brings stability. These things are no longer just options. Change must be real and useful, not just symbolic. It must also update how democracy works for the digital world.
Outside the West, its position now depends more on working well with the Global South. The idea of an open world system will only be attractive if its benefits are shared. It is less about what is said, and more about what is done. At the same time, competition with the Global East will be about fairness and partnership. It will not just be about military power or money.
In the next part, we will see how the East and South are changing global power.
Blink 4 – How power is changing in the East and South
The old center of power is getting weaker. Two new forces are changing global power: the Global East and the Global South. They are different in their makeup, views, and goals. But together, they are changing how power is used, discussed, and fought over.
In this triangle of power, the Global East is the main challenger to the open world system. Its main countries are China, Russia, and Iran. North Korea is also increasingly working with them. This is not a group based on shared ideas. What links these countries is their common interests. They all resist the West’s power, especially the US’s. The Global East works by making deals. They form flexible partnerships to gain influence, keep their leaders in power, and reach their regional goals.
China is clearly the most powerful in this group. Its single-party system plans for the long term. It builds big projects and has a strong sense of its shared culture. China’s state-controlled economy has grown fast and reached worldwide. It has made people’s lives better. But it has also kept power centralized and controlled information.
Its main project is the Belt and Road Initiative. It promises to link Asia better with Europe, Africa, and Latin America. Is this project about helping countries grow together? Or is it about making them depend more on China? That is a fair question. What is clear is that China’s plan can change. Its future will likely mix free markets, central government control, and digital authoritarian rule.
Russia’s path is much less active. It relies on oil and gas. Its systems are weak, and power is held by a few. This has led to no growth, not new progress. The war in Ukraine made Russia more isolated. Iran plays a less clear role. It shows its power in its region by conflict and using other groups to fight. But it faces problems at home and many failures.
On the other hand, the Global South is a strong, growing power. It covers Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. It has over a hundred countries with very different systems and goals. What brings them together is their desire to act for themselves. Countries like India, Brazil, South Africa, and Gulf nations are using the rivalry between East and West. They are using this chance to gain influence in their own way.
The number of young people is on their side. The Global South is young, its cities are growing, and its population is increasing fast. But this only helps if governments provide education, jobs, and chances for many people. Economically, many countries still rely on raw goods and farming. They have problems with how they are governed and find it hard to get money from investors. However, new ideas are increasingly coming from within these countries. Examples include mobile banking in Africa, green energy in Latin America, and digital services in Southeast Asia.
In all these changes, the Global South clearly asks for certain things. It wants more say in world decisions. It wants fairer money and technology conditions. It also wants a global system that shows today’s reality, not yesterday’s power. China presents itself as a supporter of many of these goals. But its growing power makes smaller countries feel worried.
So, the main question is no longer East against West. It is about who will bring respect, growth, and stability to the people and markets of the Global South.
Blink 5 – When competition turns into conflict
For a long time, world competition was easy to predict. But today, power is shared among many centers. Competition happens in almost every part of international life.
Beyond the main rivalry between the US and China, regional powers are also showing their strength. They are forming flexible groups to spread their influence. This busy world makes it harder to guess what will happen.
Competition can lead to working together, or it can turn into conflict. The direction depends on whether competition follows shared rules. These rules should balance everyone’s interests. When managed well, competition brings new ideas, growth, and better lives. When trust disappears and rules are unfair, it causes trade fights and even military conflict. The balance between competing, working together, and fighting is now key to world peace.
In all systems, technology speeds things up. AI, data, automatic systems, and cyber tools are changing countries’ economies and armies. How do we control this power? China keeps data under government control. The US lets private companies do a lot. The EU focuses on rules and people’s rights. Each way has pros and cons. Long-term success will likely come from finding a good balance, not just sticking to one idea.
As competition gets stronger, conflict is harder to stop. Global groups, especially the United Nations, find it hard to deal with modern wars. In Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan, international groups had little power. Powerful countries made deals to decide what happened. War itself has changed. Drones, cyberattacks, false information, stopping energy, and money pressure are used with traditional weapons. The line between war and peace is now unclear.
These conflicts also show unfair situations. Ukraine shows that global support has limits. Gaza shows that what the West says and does can be different. Sudan shows how easy it is to ignore a disaster if it’s not a key concern. Each case teaches us the same thing: When competition becomes too much, and cooperation is too little, conflict happens. To stop this, we need to rebuild trust and update our global groups. We also need to manage competition before it always turns into fighting.
We will look at these solutions more in the next part.
Blink 6 – Working together and deciding the future
Some problems simply do not stop at borders. Climate change is the clearest example. But there are also pandemics, money problems, food shortages, new technologies causing change, people moving, not enough water, and waste. No country, even a powerful one, can solve these alone.
Shared problems mean everyone is at risk. So, working together is not just a nice idea. It is something we must do. The real question is: can we make it work well in a world of competition and distrust?
Working together needs good systems for modern life. These include communication, safe travel, public health, education, and trade. These are global public services, and their benefits help all countries. Most countries want a say in how these are run. So, working together through many countries is still vital. But people will only trust it if it shows respect and gets results, not just talk.
Fair and trusted cooperation between many countries is key for trade. Digital technology has made trade bigger. But it has also made people lose jobs and caused strong negative reactions. This has led to populist politics, which hurts economic growth by limiting foreign trade. Small and medium countries cannot handle these problems alone. A working World Trade Organization (WTO) is still needed. Changes to the WTO will show if the global system can help new economies as well as old ones.
Changing global rules cannot be avoided. Since 1945, world organizations have changed many times. Another update is needed now. A total restart would cause chaos. Making small, steady changes is a safer way. We should keep what works and change what does not.
Two main ideas support this effort. First, respect international laws. Agreements are only important if countries follow them. Second, be fair by letting all voices be heard. Countries will support global groups if they feel included. Ideas to make the UN Security Council bigger and to stop the “veto” power from blocking things show this need. Also, holding countries accountable who break rules is important.
The author, Finland’s president, thinks the West should combine its values with practical thinking. This means using respectful diplomacy that listens to different views. He sees three possible futures: A troubled, messy world; a complete breakdown of the system; or a new, balanced world order. This new order would have a new balance between West, East, and South. He believes the Global South is key. Its choices will decide the next balance of power.
The future is not set in stone. The world order is made by people. It can get worse if we ignore it. Or we can fix it with changes, patience, and involvement. Working together will not stop competition or conflict. But it can change how they happen. We must choose to act now, before the world breaks apart too much to be fixed.
Final summary
In this summary of Alexander Stubb’s book, The Triangle of Power, you have learned important things. The world order, built on rules after World War II, is getting weaker. This is because of strong-leader countries growing, populist movements in the West, and politics based on deals and self-interest. Power is now spread across three main areas: the Global West, Global East, and Global South. How these three groups interact will decide the future. Competition cannot be avoided. But without fair rules and trusted organizations, it will lead to conflict. Russia’s war against Ukraine showed this truth. China’s long-term plans and the Global South’s growing confidence show that countries will not automatically follow the West anymore. Democracy and strong-leader systems are now competing. They want to show who can bring stability, wealth, and safety in a changing world.
The way forward is not by looking back or giving up. It is through change. The Global West must improve itself at home. It must share power more fairly with other countries. It should lead by example, not by telling others what to do. Global organizations – like the UN and WTO – need to change. They must show today’s power balance and give the Global South real influence. Working together must be based on common interests, like climate action, trade, safety, and managing technology. All this means having a foreign policy that is both practical and respectful. It means sticking to democratic ideas while working politely with those who have different ideas.
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Source: https://www.blinkist.com/https://www.blinkist.com/en/books/the-triangle-of-power-en